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Jan 9

Consensus Entropy: Harnessing Multi-VLM Agreement for Self-Verifying and Self-Improving OCR

The Optical Character Recognition (OCR) task is important for evaluating Vision-Language Models (VLMs) and providing high-quality data sources for LLM training data. While state-of-the-art VLMs show improved average OCR accuracy, they still struggle with sample-level quality degradation and lack reliable automatic detection of low-quality outputs. We introduce Consensus Entropy (CE), a training-free post-inference method that quantifies OCR uncertainty by aggregating outputs from multiple VLMs. Our approach exploits a key insight: correct VLM OCR predictions converge in output space while errors diverge. We develop a lightweight multi-model framework that effectively identifies problematic samples, selects the best outputs and combines model strengths. Experiments across multiple OCR benchmarks and VLMs demonstrate that CE outperforms VLM-as-judge approaches and single-model baselines at the same cost and achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple metrics. For instance, our solution demonstrates: achieving 15.2% higher F1 scores than VLM-as-judge methods in quality verification, delivering 6.0% accuracy gains on mathematical calculation tasks, and requiring rephrasing only 7.3% of inputs while maintaining overall performance. Notably, the entire process requires neither training nor supervision while maintaining plug-and-play functionality throughout.

  • 10 authors
·
Apr 15, 2025

Seeing is Believing? Mitigating OCR Hallucinations in Multimodal Large Language Models

Recent advancements in multimodal large language models have enhanced document understanding by integrating textual and visual information. However, existing models exhibit incompleteness within their paradigm in real-world scenarios, particularly under visual degradation. In such conditions, the current response paradigm often fails to adequately perceive visual degradation and ambiguity, leading to overreliance on linguistic priors or misaligned visual-textual reasoning. This difficulty in recognizing uncertainty frequently results in the generation of hallucinatory content, especially when a precise answer is not feasible. To better demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon and problem, we propose KIE-HVQA, the first benchmark dedicated to evaluating OCR hallucination in degraded document understanding. This dataset includes test samples spanning identity cards and invoices, with simulated real-world degradations for OCR reliability. This setup allows for evaluating models' capacity, under degraded input, to distinguish reliable visual information and answer accordingly, thereby highlighting the challenge of avoiding hallucination on uncertain data. To achieve vision-faithful reasoning and thereby avoid the aforementioned issues, we further introduce a GRPO-based framework featuring a novel reward mechanism. By incorporating a self-awareness of visual uncertainty and an analysis method that initiates refusal to answer to increase task difficulty within our supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning framework, we successfully mitigated hallucinations in ambiguous regions. Experiments on Qwen2.5-VL demonstrate that our 7B-parameter model achieves a 22\% absolute improvement in hallucination-free accuracy over GPT-4o on KIE-HVQA and there is no significant performance drop in standard tasks, highlighting both effectiveness and robustness.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 25, 2025

Flexible Visual Recognition by Evidential Modeling of Confusion and Ignorance

In real-world scenarios, typical visual recognition systems could fail under two major causes, i.e., the misclassification between known classes and the excusable misbehavior on unknown-class images. To tackle these deficiencies, flexible visual recognition should dynamically predict multiple classes when they are unconfident between choices and reject making predictions when the input is entirely out of the training distribution. Two challenges emerge along with this novel task. First, prediction uncertainty should be separately quantified as confusion depicting inter-class uncertainties and ignorance identifying out-of-distribution samples. Second, both confusion and ignorance should be comparable between samples to enable effective decision-making. In this paper, we propose to model these two sources of uncertainty explicitly with the theory of Subjective Logic. Regarding recognition as an evidence-collecting process, confusion is then defined as conflicting evidence, while ignorance is the absence of evidence. By predicting Dirichlet concentration parameters for singletons, comprehensive subjective opinions, including confusion and ignorance, could be achieved via further evidence combinations. Through a series of experiments on synthetic data analysis, visual recognition, and open-set detection, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in quantifying two sources of uncertainties and dealing with flexible recognition.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 13, 2023

TextSR: Diffusion Super-Resolution with Multilingual OCR Guidance

While recent advancements in Image Super-Resolution (SR) using diffusion models have shown promise in improving overall image quality, their application to scene text images has revealed limitations. These models often struggle with accurate text region localization and fail to effectively model image and multilingual character-to-shape priors. This leads to inconsistencies, the generation of hallucinated textures, and a decrease in the perceived quality of the super-resolved text. To address these issues, we introduce TextSR, a multimodal diffusion model specifically designed for Multilingual Scene Text Image Super-Resolution. TextSR leverages a text detector to pinpoint text regions within an image and then employs Optical Character Recognition (OCR) to extract multilingual text from these areas. The extracted text characters are then transformed into visual shapes using a UTF-8 based text encoder and cross-attention. Recognizing that OCR may sometimes produce inaccurate results in real-world scenarios, we have developed two innovative methods to enhance the robustness of our model. By integrating text character priors with the low-resolution text images, our model effectively guides the super-resolution process, enhancing fine details within the text and improving overall legibility. The superior performance of our model on both the TextZoom and TextVQA datasets sets a new benchmark for STISR, underscoring the efficacy of our approach.

  • 7 authors
·
May 29, 2025

Building Safe and Reliable AI systems for Safety Critical Tasks with Vision-Language Processing

Although AI systems have been applied in various fields and achieved impressive performance, their safety and reliability are still a big concern. This is especially important for safety-critical tasks. One shared characteristic of these critical tasks is their risk sensitivity, where small mistakes can cause big consequences and even endanger life. There are several factors that could be guidelines for the successful deployment of AI systems in sensitive tasks: (i) failure detection and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection; (ii) overfitting identification; (iii) uncertainty quantification for predictions; (iv) robustness to data perturbations. These factors are also challenges of current AI systems, which are major blocks for building safe and reliable AI. Specifically, the current AI algorithms are unable to identify common causes for failure detection. Furthermore, additional techniques are required to quantify the quality of predictions. All these contribute to inaccurate uncertainty quantification, which lowers trust in predictions. Hence obtaining accurate model uncertainty quantification and its further improvement are challenging. To address these issues, many techniques have been proposed, such as regularization methods and learning strategies. As vision and language are the most typical data type and have many open source benchmark datasets, this thesis will focus on vision-language data processing for tasks like classification, image captioning, and vision question answering. In this thesis, we aim to build a safeguard by further developing current techniques to ensure the accurate model uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 6, 2023

ValUES: A Framework for Systematic Validation of Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on the other hand, the field is currently hampered by a gap between theory and practice leaving fundamental questions unanswered: Can data-related and model-related uncertainty really be separated in practice? Which components of an uncertainty method are essential for real-world performance? Which uncertainty method works well for which application? In this work, we link this research gap to a lack of systematic and comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods. Specifically, we identify three key pitfalls in current literature and present an evaluation framework that bridges the research gap by providing 1) a controlled environment for studying data ambiguities as well as distribution shifts, 2) systematic ablations of relevant method components, and 3) test-beds for the five predominant uncertainty applications: OoD-detection, active learning, failure detection, calibration, and ambiguity modeling. Empirical results on simulated as well as real-world data demonstrate how the proposed framework is able to answer the predominant questions in the field revealing for instance that 1) separation of uncertainty types works on simulated data but does not necessarily translate to real-world data, 2) aggregation of scores is a crucial but currently neglected component of uncertainty methods, 3) While ensembles are performing most robustly across the different downstream tasks and settings, test-time augmentation often constitutes a light-weight alternative. Code is at: https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/values

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 16, 2024

On the Generalization of Representation Uncertainty in Earth Observation

Recent advances in Computer Vision have introduced the concept of pretrained representation uncertainty, enabling zero-shot uncertainty estimation. This holds significant potential for Earth Observation (EO), where trustworthiness is critical, yet the complexity of EO data poses challenges to uncertainty-aware methods. In this work, we investigate the generalization of representation uncertainty in EO, considering the domain's unique semantic characteristics. We pretrain uncertainties on large EO datasets and propose an evaluation framework to assess their zero-shot performance in multi-label classification and segmentation EO tasks. Our findings reveal that, unlike uncertainties pretrained on natural images, EO-pretraining exhibits strong generalization across unseen EO domains, geographic locations, and target granularities, while maintaining sensitivity to variations in ground sampling distance. We demonstrate the practical utility of pretrained uncertainties showcasing their alignment with task-specific uncertainties in downstream tasks, their sensitivity to real-world EO image noise, and their ability to generate spatial uncertainty estimates out-of-the-box. Initiating the discussion on representation uncertainty in EO, our study provides insights into its strengths and limitations, paving the way for future research in the field. Code and weights are available at: https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/EOUncertaintyGeneralization.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 10, 2025

Look Before You Leap: An Exploratory Study of Uncertainty Measurement for Large Language Models

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by LLMs, have also raised severe concerns for the trustworthiness of LLMs', especially in safety-, security- and reliability-sensitive scenarios, potentially hindering real-world adoptions. While uncertainty estimation has shown its potential for interpreting the prediction risks made by general machine learning (ML) models, little is known about whether and to what extent it can help explore an LLM's capabilities and counteract its undesired behavior. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we initiate an exploratory study on the risk assessment of LLMs from the lens of uncertainty. In particular, we experiment with twelve uncertainty estimation methods and four LLMs on four prominent natural language processing (NLP) tasks to investigate to what extent uncertainty estimation techniques could help characterize the prediction risks of LLMs. Our findings validate the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation for revealing LLMs' uncertain/non-factual predictions. In addition to general NLP tasks, we extensively conduct experiments with four LLMs for code generation on two datasets. We find that uncertainty estimation can potentially uncover buggy programs generated by LLMs. Insights from our study shed light on future design and development for reliable LLMs, facilitating further research toward enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 16, 2023

OCR Hinders RAG: Evaluating the Cascading Impact of OCR on Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Retrieval-augmented Generation (RAG) enhances Large Language Models (LLMs) by integrating external knowledge to reduce hallucinations and incorporate up-to-date information without retraining. As an essential part of RAG, external knowledge bases are commonly built by extracting structured data from unstructured PDF documents using Optical Character Recognition (OCR). However, given the imperfect prediction of OCR and the inherent non-uniform representation of structured data, knowledge bases inevitably contain various OCR noises. In this paper, we introduce OHRBench, the first benchmark for understanding the cascading impact of OCR on RAG systems. OHRBench includes 350 carefully selected unstructured PDF documents from six real-world RAG application domains, along with Q&As derived from multimodal elements in documents, challenging existing OCR solutions used for RAG To better understand OCR's impact on RAG systems, we identify two primary types of OCR noise: Semantic Noise and Formatting Noise and apply perturbation to generate a set of structured data with varying degrees of each OCR noise. Using OHRBench, we first conduct a comprehensive evaluation of current OCR solutions and reveal that none is competent for constructing high-quality knowledge bases for RAG systems. We then systematically evaluate the impact of these two noise types and demonstrate the vulnerability of RAG systems. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of employing Vision-Language Models (VLMs) without OCR in RAG systems. Code: https://github.com/opendatalab/OHR-Bench

  • 9 authors
·
Dec 3, 2024 2

More efficient manual review of automatically transcribed tabular data

Machine learning methods have proven useful in transcribing historical data. However, results from even highly accurate methods require manual verification and correction. Such manual review can be time-consuming and expensive, therefore the objective of this paper was to make it more efficient. Previously, we used machine learning to transcribe 2.3 million handwritten occupation codes from the Norwegian 1950 census with high accuracy (97%). We manually reviewed the 90,000 (3%) codes with the lowest model confidence. We allocated those 90,000 codes to human reviewers, who used our annotation tool to review the codes. To assess reviewer agreement, some codes were assigned to multiple reviewers. We then analyzed the review results to understand the relationship between accuracy improvements and effort. Additionally, we interviewed the reviewers to improve the workflow. The reviewers corrected 62.8% of the labels and agreed with the model label in 31.9% of cases. About 0.2% of the images could not be assigned a label, while for 5.1% the reviewers were uncertain, or they assigned an invalid label. 9,000 images were independently reviewed by multiple reviewers, resulting in an agreement of 86.43% and disagreement of 8.96%. We learned that our automatic transcription is biased towards the most frequent codes, with a higher degree of misclassification for the lowest frequency codes. Our interview findings show that the reviewers did internal quality control and found our custom tool well-suited. So, only one reviewer is needed, but they should report uncertainty.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 28, 2023

Data Generation for Post-OCR correction of Cyrillic handwriting

This paper introduces a novel approach to post-Optical Character Recognition Correction (POC) for handwritten Cyrillic text, addressing a significant gap in current research methodologies. This gap is due to the lack of large text corporas that provide OCR errors for further training of language-based POC models, which are demanding in terms of corpora size. Our study primarily focuses on the development and application of a synthetic handwriting generation engine based on B\'ezier curves. Such an engine generates highly realistic handwritten text in any amounts, which we utilize to create a substantial dataset by transforming Russian text corpora sourced from the internet. We apply a Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) model to this dataset to identify OCR errors, forming the basis for our POC model training. The correction model is trained on a 90-symbol input context, utilizing a pre-trained T5 architecture with a seq2seq correction task. We evaluate our approach on HWR200 and School_notebooks_RU datasets as they provide significant challenges in the HTR domain. Furthermore, POC can be used to highlight errors for teachers, evaluating student performance. This can be done simply by comparing sentences before and after correction, displaying differences in text. Our primary contribution lies in the innovative use of B\'ezier curves for Cyrillic text generation and subsequent error correction using a specialized POC model. We validate our approach by presenting Word Accuracy Rate (WAR) and Character Accuracy Rate (CAR) results, both with and without post-OCR correction, using real open corporas of handwritten Cyrillic text. These results, coupled with our methodology, are designed to be reproducible, paving the way for further advancements in the field of OCR and handwritten text analysis. Paper contributions can be found in https://github.com/dbrainio/CyrillicHandwritingPOC

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 27, 2023

OCR-Reasoning Benchmark: Unveiling the True Capabilities of MLLMs in Complex Text-Rich Image Reasoning

Recent advancements in multimodal slow-thinking systems have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse visual reasoning tasks. However, their capabilities in text-rich image reasoning tasks remain understudied due to the lack of a systematic benchmark. To address this gap, we propose OCR-Reasoning, a comprehensive benchmark designed to systematically assess Multimodal Large Language Models on text-rich image reasoning tasks. The benchmark comprises 1,069 human-annotated examples spanning 6 core reasoning abilities and 18 practical reasoning tasks in text-rich visual scenarios. Furthermore, unlike other text-rich image understanding benchmarks that only annotate the final answers, OCR-Reasoning also annotates the reasoning process simultaneously. With the annotated reasoning process and the final answers, OCR-Reasoning evaluates not only the final answers generated by models but also their reasoning processes, enabling a holistic analysis of their problem-solving abilities. Leveraging this benchmark, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art MLLMs. Our results demonstrate the limitations of existing methodologies. Notably, even state-of-the-art MLLMs exhibit substantial difficulties, with none achieving accuracy surpassing 50\% across OCR-Reasoning, indicating that the challenges of text-rich image reasoning are an urgent issue to be addressed. The benchmark and evaluation scripts are available at https://github.com/SCUT-DLVCLab/OCR-Reasoning.

  • 6 authors
·
May 22, 2025

Exploring Response Uncertainty in MLLMs: An Empirical Evaluation under Misleading Scenarios

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on tasks ranging from visual question answering to video understanding. However, existing studies have concentrated mainly on visual-textual misalignment, leaving largely unexplored the MLLMs' ability to preserve an originally correct answer when confronted with misleading information. We reveal a response uncertainty phenomenon: across nine standard datasets, twelve state-of-the-art open-source MLLMs overturn a previously correct answer in 65% of cases after receiving a single deceptive cue. To systematically quantify this vulnerability, we propose a two-stage evaluation pipeline: (1) elicit each model's original response on unperturbed inputs; (2) inject explicit (false-answer hints) and implicit (contextual contradictions) misleading instructions, and compute the misleading rate - the fraction of correct-to-incorrect flips. Leveraging the most susceptible examples, we curate the Multimodal Uncertainty Benchmark (MUB), a collection of image-question pairs stratified into low, medium, and high difficulty based on how many of twelve state-of-the-art MLLMs they mislead. Extensive evaluation on twelve open-source and five closed-source models reveals a high uncertainty: average misleading rates exceed 86%, with explicit cues over 67.19% and implicit cues over 80.67%. To reduce the misleading rate, we then fine-tune all open-source MLLMs on a compact 2000-sample mixed-instruction dataset, reducing misleading rates to 6.97% (explicit) and 32.77% (implicit), boosting consistency by nearly 29.37% on highly deceptive inputs, and slightly improving accuracy on standard benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/Yunkaidang/uncertainty

  • 11 authors
·
Nov 4, 2024

The Achievement of Higher Flexibility in Multiple Choice-based Tests Using Image Classification Techniques

In spite of the high accuracy of the existing optical mark reading (OMR) systems and devices, a few restrictions remain existent. In this work, we aim to reduce the restrictions of multiple choice questions (MCQ) within tests. We use an image registration technique to extract the answer boxes from answer sheets. Unlike other systems that rely on simple image processing steps to recognize the extracted answer boxes, we address the problem from another perspective by training a machine learning classifier to recognize the class of each answer box (i.e., confirmed, crossed out, or blank answer). This gives us the ability to deal with a variety of shading and mark patterns, and distinguish between chosen (i.e., confirmed) and canceled answers (i.e., crossed out). All existing machine learning techniques require a large number of examples in order to train a model for classification, therefore we present a dataset including six real MCQ assessments with different answer sheet templates. We evaluate two strategies of classification: a straight-forward approach and a two-stage classifier approach. We test two handcrafted feature methods and a convolutional neural network. In the end, we present an easy-to-use graphical user interface of the proposed system. Compared with existing OMR systems, the proposed system has the least constraints and achieves a high accuracy. We believe that the presented work will further direct the development of OMR systems towards reducing the restrictions of the MCQ tests.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 2, 2017

Uncertainty is Fragile: Manipulating Uncertainty in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are employed across various high-stakes domains, where the reliability of their outputs is crucial. One commonly used method to assess the reliability of LLMs' responses is uncertainty estimation, which gauges the likelihood of their answers being correct. While many studies focus on improving the accuracy of uncertainty estimations for LLMs, our research investigates the fragility of uncertainty estimation and explores potential attacks. We demonstrate that an attacker can embed a backdoor in LLMs, which, when activated by a specific trigger in the input, manipulates the model's uncertainty without affecting the final output. Specifically, the proposed backdoor attack method can alter an LLM's output probability distribution, causing the probability distribution to converge towards an attacker-predefined distribution while ensuring that the top-1 prediction remains unchanged. Our experimental results demonstrate that this attack effectively undermines the model's self-evaluation reliability in multiple-choice questions. For instance, we achieved a 100 attack success rate (ASR) across three different triggering strategies in four models. Further, we investigate whether this manipulation generalizes across different prompts and domains. This work highlights a significant threat to the reliability of LLMs and underscores the need for future defenses against such attacks. The code is available at https://github.com/qcznlp/uncertainty_attack.

  • 15 authors
·
Jul 15, 2024 2

KITAB-Bench: A Comprehensive Multi-Domain Benchmark for Arabic OCR and Document Understanding

With the growing adoption of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) in document processing, robust text recognition has become increasingly critical for knowledge extraction. While OCR (Optical Character Recognition) for English and other languages benefits from large datasets and well-established benchmarks, Arabic OCR faces unique challenges due to its cursive script, right-to-left text flow, and complex typographic and calligraphic features. We present KITAB-Bench, a comprehensive Arabic OCR benchmark that fills the gaps in current evaluation systems. Our benchmark comprises 8,809 samples across 9 major domains and 36 sub-domains, encompassing diverse document types including handwritten text, structured tables, and specialized coverage of 21 chart types for business intelligence. Our findings show that modern vision-language models (such as GPT-4, Gemini, and Qwen) outperform traditional OCR approaches (like EasyOCR, PaddleOCR, and Surya) by an average of 60% in Character Error Rate (CER). Furthermore, we highlight significant limitations of current Arabic OCR models, particularly in PDF-to-Markdown conversion, where the best model Gemini-2.0-Flash achieves only 65% accuracy. This underscores the challenges in accurately recognizing Arabic text, including issues with complex fonts, numeral recognition errors, word elongation, and table structure detection. This work establishes a rigorous evaluation framework that can drive improvements in Arabic document analysis methods and bridge the performance gap with English OCR technologies.

CheXmask-U: Quantifying uncertainty in landmark-based anatomical segmentation for X-ray images

Uncertainty estimation is essential for the safe clinical deployment of medical image segmentation systems, enabling the identification of unreliable predictions and supporting human oversight. While prior work has largely focused on pixel-level uncertainty, landmark-based segmentation offers inherent topological guarantees yet remains underexplored from an uncertainty perspective. In this work, we study uncertainty estimation for anatomical landmark-based segmentation on chest X-rays. Inspired by hybrid neural network architectures that combine standard image convolutional encoders with graph-based generative decoders, and leveraging their variational latent space, we derive two complementary measures: (i) latent uncertainty, captured directly from the learned distribution parameters, and (ii) predictive uncertainty, obtained by generating multiple stochastic output predictions from latent samples. Through controlled corruption experiments we show that both uncertainty measures increase with perturbation severity, reflecting both global and local degradation. We demonstrate that these uncertainty signals can identify unreliable predictions by comparing with manual ground-truth, and support out-of-distribution detection on the CheXmask dataset. More importantly, we release CheXmask-U (huggingface.co/datasets/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U), a large scale dataset of 657,566 chest X-ray landmark segmentations with per-node uncertainty estimates, enabling researchers to account for spatial variations in segmentation quality when using these anatomical masks. Our findings establish uncertainty estimation as a promising direction to enhance robustness and safe deployment of landmark-based anatomical segmentation methods in chest X-ray. A fully working interactive demo of the method is available at huggingface.co/spaces/matiasky/CheXmask-U and the source code at github.com/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 11, 2025 2

"I'm Not Sure, But...": Examining the Impact of Large Language Models' Uncertainty Expression on User Reliance and Trust

Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To reduce such overreliance, there have been calls for LLMs to communicate their uncertainty to end users. However, there has been little empirical work examining how users perceive and act upon LLMs' expressions of uncertainty. We explore this question through a large-scale, pre-registered, human-subject experiment (N=404) in which participants answer medical questions with or without access to responses from a fictional LLM-infused search engine. Using both behavioral and self-reported measures, we examine how different natural language expressions of uncertainty impact participants' reliance, trust, and overall task performance. We find that first-person expressions (e.g., "I'm not sure, but...") decrease participants' confidence in the system and tendency to agree with the system's answers, while increasing participants' accuracy. An exploratory analysis suggests that this increase can be attributed to reduced (but not fully eliminated) overreliance on incorrect answers. While we observe similar effects for uncertainty expressed from a general perspective (e.g., "It's not clear, but..."), these effects are weaker and not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that using natural language expressions of uncertainty may be an effective approach for reducing overreliance on LLMs, but that the precise language used matters. This highlights the importance of user testing before deploying LLMs at scale.

  • 5 authors
·
May 1, 2024

MAQA: Evaluating Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs Regarding Data Uncertainty

Although large language models (LLMs) are capable of performing various tasks, they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict whether a response is correct or not. However, most uncertainty quantification methods have been evaluated on questions requiring a single clear answer, ignoring the existence of data uncertainty that arises from irreducible randomness. Instead, these methods only consider model uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge. In this paper, we investigate previous uncertainty quantification methods under the presence of data uncertainty. Our contributions are two-fold: 1) proposing a new Multi-Answer Question Answering dataset, MAQA, consisting of world knowledge, mathematical reasoning, and commonsense reasoning tasks to evaluate uncertainty quantification regarding data uncertainty, and 2) assessing 5 uncertainty quantification methods of diverse white- and black-box LLMs. Our findings show that entropy and consistency-based methods estimate the model uncertainty well even under data uncertainty, while other methods for white- and black-box LLMs struggle depending on the tasks. Additionally, methods designed for white-box LLMs suffer from overconfidence in reasoning tasks compared to simple knowledge queries. We believe our observations will pave the way for future work on uncertainty quantification in realistic setting.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 13, 2024

Handwritten Code Recognition for Pen-and-Paper CS Education

Teaching Computer Science (CS) by having students write programs by hand on paper has key pedagogical advantages: It allows focused learning and requires careful thinking compared to the use of Integrated Development Environments (IDEs) with intelligent support tools or "just trying things out". The familiar environment of pens and paper also lessens the cognitive load of students with no prior experience with computers, for whom the mere basic usage of computers can be intimidating. Finally, this teaching approach opens learning opportunities to students with limited access to computers. However, a key obstacle is the current lack of teaching methods and support software for working with and running handwritten programs. Optical character recognition (OCR) of handwritten code is challenging: Minor OCR errors, perhaps due to varied handwriting styles, easily make code not run, and recognizing indentation is crucial for languages like Python but is difficult to do due to inconsistent horizontal spacing in handwriting. Our approach integrates two innovative methods. The first combines OCR with an indentation recognition module and a language model designed for post-OCR error correction without introducing hallucinations. This method, to our knowledge, surpasses all existing systems in handwritten code recognition. It reduces error from 30\% in the state of the art to 5\% with minimal hallucination of logical fixes to student programs. The second method leverages a multimodal language model to recognize handwritten programs in an end-to-end fashion. We hope this contribution can stimulate further pedagogical research and contribute to the goal of making CS education universally accessible. We release a dataset of handwritten programs and code to support future research at https://github.com/mdoumbouya/codeocr

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 7, 2024

Rethinking Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Since current LLMs generate text autoregressively through a stochastic process, the same prompt can lead to varying outputs. Consequently, leading uncertainty estimation methods generate and analyze multiple output sequences to determine the LLM's uncertainty. However, generating output sequences is computationally expensive, making these methods impractical at scale. In this work, we inspect the theoretical foundations of the leading methods and explore new directions to enhance their computational efficiency. Building on the framework of proper scoring rules, we find that the negative log-likelihood of the most likely output sequence constitutes a theoretically grounded uncertainty measure. To approximate this alternative measure, we propose G-NLL, which has the advantage of being obtained using only a single output sequence generated by greedy decoding. This makes uncertainty estimation more efficient and straightforward, while preserving theoretical rigor. Empirical results demonstrate that G-NLL achieves state-of-the-art performance across various LLMs and tasks. Our work lays the foundation for efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in natural language generation, challenging the necessity of more computationally involved methods currently leading the field.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 19, 2024

FinCriticalED: A Visual Benchmark for Financial Fact-Level OCR Evaluation

We introduce FinCriticalED (Financial Critical Error Detection), a visual benchmark for evaluating OCR and vision language models on financial documents at the fact level. Financial documents contain visually dense and table heavy layouts where numerical and temporal information is tightly coupled with structure. In high stakes settings, small OCR mistakes such as sign inversion or shifted dates can lead to materially different interpretations, while traditional OCR metrics like ROUGE and edit distance capture only surface level text similarity. \ficriticaled provides 500 image-HTML pairs with expert annotated financial facts covering over seven hundred numerical and temporal facts. It introduces three key contributions. First, it establishes the first fact level evaluation benchmark for financial document understanding, shifting evaluation from lexical overlap to domain critical factual correctness. Second, all annotations are created and verified by financial experts with strict quality control over signs, magnitudes, and temporal expressions. Third, we develop an LLM-as-Judge evaluation pipeline that performs structured fact extraction and contextual verification for visually complex financial documents. We benchmark OCR systems, open source vision language models, and proprietary models on FinCriticalED. Results show that although the strongest proprietary models achieve the highest factual accuracy, substantial errors remain in visually intricate numerical and temporal contexts. Through quantitative evaluation and expert case studies, FinCriticalED provides a rigorous foundation for advancing visual factual precision in financial and other precision critical domains.

  • 13 authors
·
Nov 18, 2025

Judging LLMs on a Simplex

Automated evaluation of free-form outputs from large language models (LLMs) is challenging because many distinct answers can be equally valid. A common practice is to use LLMs themselves as judges, but the theoretical properties of this approach are not yet well understood. We show that a geometric framework that represents both judges and candidates as points on a probability simplex can provide helpful insight on what is or is not identifiable using LLM judges. Our theoretical analysis uncovers a "phase transition" in ranking identifiability: for binary scoring systems, true rankings are identifiable even with weak judges under mild assumptions, while rankings become non-identifiable for three or more scoring levels even with infinite data, absent additional prior knowledge. This non-identifiability highlights how uncertainty in rankings stems from not only aleatoric uncertainty (i.e., inherent stochasticity in the data) but also epistemic uncertainty regarding which assumptions hold, an aspect that has received limited attention until now. To integrate both types of uncertainty, we use Bayesian inference to encode assumptions as priors and conduct sensitivity analysis of ranking estimates and credible intervals. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that Bayesian inference yields more accurate rankings and substantially improves coverage rates. These results underscore the importance of taking a more holistic approach to uncertainty quantification when using LLMs as judges.

  • 4 authors
·
May 28, 2025

Aesthetics is Cheap, Show me the Text: An Empirical Evaluation of State-of-the-Art Generative Models for OCR

Text image is a unique and crucial information medium that integrates visual aesthetics and linguistic semantics in modern e-society. Due to their subtlety and complexity, the generation of text images represents a challenging and evolving frontier in the image generation field. The recent surge of specialized image generators (e.g., Flux-series) and unified generative models (e.g., GPT-4o), which demonstrate exceptional fidelity, raises a natural question: can they master the intricacies of text image generation and editing? Motivated by this, we assess current state-of-the-art generative models' capabilities in terms of text image generation and editing. We incorporate various typical optical character recognition (OCR) tasks into our evaluation and broaden the concept of text-based generation tasks into OCR generative tasks. We select 33 representative tasks and categorize them into five categories: document, handwritten text, scene text, artistic text, and complex \& layout-rich text. For comprehensive evaluation, we examine six models across both closed-source and open-source domains, using tailored, high-quality image inputs and prompts. Through this evaluation, we draw crucial observations and identify the weaknesses of current generative models for OCR tasks. We argue that photorealistic text image generation and editing should be internalized as foundational skills into general-domain generative models, rather than being delegated to specialized solutions, and we hope this empirical analysis can provide valuable insights for the community to achieve this goal. This evaluation is online and will be continuously updated at our GitHub repository.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 20, 2025

Navigating the Grey Area: Expressions of Overconfidence and Uncertainty in Language Models

Despite increasingly fluent, relevant, and coherent language generation, major gaps remain between how humans and machines use language. We argue that a key dimension that is missing from our understanding of language models (LMs) is the model's ability to interpret and generate expressions of uncertainty. Whether it be the weatherperson announcing a chance of rain or a doctor giving a diagnosis, information is often not black-and-white and expressions of uncertainty provide nuance to support human-decision making. The increasing deployment of LMs in the wild motivates us to investigate whether LMs are capable of interpreting expressions of uncertainty and how LMs' behaviors change when learning to emit their own expressions of uncertainty. When injecting expressions of uncertainty into prompts (e.g., "I think the answer is..."), we discover that GPT3's generations vary upwards of 80% in accuracy based on the expression used. We analyze the linguistic characteristics of these expressions and find a drop in accuracy when naturalistic expressions of certainty are present. We find similar effects when teaching models to emit their own expressions of uncertainty, where model calibration suffers when teaching models to emit certainty rather than uncertainty. Together, these results highlight the challenges of building LMs that interpret and generate trustworthy expressions of uncertainty.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 26, 2023

Inv-Entropy: A Fully Probabilistic Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 11, 2025

E-ARMOR: Edge case Assessment and Review of Multilingual Optical Character Recognition

Optical Character Recognition (OCR) in multilingual, noisy, and diverse real-world images remains a significant challenge for optical character recognition systems. With the rise of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs), there is growing interest in their ability to generalize and reason beyond fixed OCR pipelines. In this work, we introduce Sprinklr-Edge-OCR, a novel OCR system built specifically optimized for edge deployment in resource-constrained environments. We present a large-scale comparative evaluation of five state-of-the-art LVLMs (InternVL, Qwen, GOT OCR, LLaMA, MiniCPM) and two traditional OCR systems (Sprinklr-Edge-OCR, SuryaOCR) on a proprietary, doubly hand annotated dataset of multilingual (54 languages) images. Our benchmark covers a broad range of metrics including accuracy, semantic consistency, language coverage, computational efficiency (latency, memory, GPU usage), and deployment cost. To better reflect real-world applicability, we also conducted edge case deployment analysis, evaluating model performance on CPU only environments. Among the results, Qwen achieved the highest precision (0.54), while Sprinklr-Edge-OCR delivered the best overall F1 score (0.46) and outperformed others in efficiency, processing images 35 faster (0.17 seconds per image on average) and at less than 0.01 of the cost (0.006 USD per 1,000 images) compared to LVLM. Our findings demonstrate that the most optimal OCR systems for edge deployment are the traditional ones even in the era of LLMs due to their low compute requirements, low latency, and very high affordability.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 3, 2025

Extending TrOCR for Text Localization-Free OCR of Full-Page Scanned Receipt Images

Digitization of scanned receipts aims to extract text from receipt images and save it into structured documents. This is usually split into two sub-tasks: text localization and optical character recognition (OCR). Most existing OCR models only focus on the cropped text instance images, which require the bounding box information provided by a text region detection model. Introducing an additional detector to identify the text instance images in advance adds complexity, however instance-level OCR models have very low accuracy when processing the whole image for the document-level OCR, such as receipt images containing multiple text lines arranged in various layouts. To this end, we propose a localization-free document-level OCR model for transcribing all the characters in a receipt image into an ordered sequence end-to-end. Specifically, we finetune the pretrained instance-level model TrOCR with randomly cropped image chunks, and gradually increase the image chunk size to generalize the recognition ability from instance images to full-page images. In our experiments on the SROIE receipt OCR dataset, the model finetuned with our strategy achieved 64.4 F1-score and a 22.8% character error rate (CER), respectively, which outperforms the baseline results with 48.5 F1-score and 50.6% CER. The best model, which splits the full image into 15 equally sized chunks, gives 87.8 F1-score and 4.98% CER with minimal additional pre or post-processing of the output. Moreover, the characters in the generated document-level sequences are arranged in the reading order, which is practical for real-world applications.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 11, 2022

PsOCR: Benchmarking Large Multimodal Models for Optical Character Recognition in Low-resource Pashto Language

This paper evaluates the performance of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) on Optical Character Recognition (OCR) in the low-resource Pashto language. Natural Language Processing (NLP) in Pashto faces several challenges due to the cursive nature of its script and a scarcity of structured datasets. To address this, we developed a synthetic Pashto OCR dataset, PsOCR, consisting of one million images annotated with bounding boxes at word, line, and document levels, suitable for training and evaluating models based on different architectures, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Transformers. PsOCR covers variations across 1,000 unique font families, colors, image sizes, and layouts. A benchmark subset of 10K images was selected to evaluate the performance of several LMMs, including seven open-source models: DeepSeek's Janus, InternVL, MiniCPM, Florence, and Qwen (3B and 7B), and four closed-source models: GPT-4o, Gemini, Claude, and Grok. Experimental results demonstrate that Gemini achieves the best performance among all models, whereas among open-source models, Qwen-7B stands out. This work provides an insightful assessment of the capabilities and limitations of current LMMs for OCR tasks in Pashto and establishes a foundation for further research not only in Pashto OCR but also for other similar scripts such as Arabic, Persian, and Urdu. PsOCR is available at https://github.com/zirak-ai/PashtoOCR.

  • 3 authors
·
May 15, 2025

Visualizing Uncertainty in Translation Tasks: An Evaluation of LLM Performance and Confidence Metrics

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized for machine translation, yet their predictions often exhibit uncertainties that hinder interpretability and user trust. Effectively visualizing these uncertainties can enhance the usability of LLM outputs, particularly in contexts where translation accuracy is critical. This paper addresses two primary objectives: (1) providing users with token-level insights into model confidence and (2) developing a web-based visualization tool to quantify and represent translation uncertainties. To achieve these goals, we utilized the T5 model with the WMT19 dataset for translation tasks and evaluated translation quality using established metrics such as BLEU, METEOR, and ROUGE. We introduced three novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) metrics: (1) the geometric mean of token probabilities, (2) the arithmetic mean of token probabilities, and (3) the arithmetic mean of the kurtosis of token distributions. These metrics provide a simple yet effective framework for evaluating translation performance. Our analysis revealed a linear relationship between the traditional evaluation metrics and our UQ metrics, demonstrating the validity of our approach. Additionally, we developed an interactive web-based visualization that uses a color gradient to represent token confidence. This tool offers users a clear and intuitive understanding of translation quality while providing valuable insights into model performance. Overall, we show that our UQ metrics and visualization are both robust and interpretable, offering practical tools for evaluating and accessing machine translation systems.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 26, 2025

Instant Uncertainty Calibration of NeRFs Using a Meta-Calibrator

Although Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have markedly improved novel view synthesis, accurate uncertainty quantification in their image predictions remains an open problem. The prevailing methods for estimating uncertainty, including the state-of-the-art Density-aware NeRF Ensembles (DANE) [29], quantify uncertainty without calibration. This frequently leads to over- or under-confidence in image predictions, which can undermine their real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a method which, for the first time, achieves calibrated uncertainties for NeRFs. To accomplish this, we overcome a significant challenge in adapting existing calibration techniques to NeRFs: a need to hold out ground truth images from the target scene, reducing the number of images left to train the NeRF. This issue is particularly problematic in sparse-view settings, where we can operate with as few as three images. To address this, we introduce the concept of a meta-calibrator that performs uncertainty calibration for NeRFs with a single forward pass without the need for holding out any images from the target scene. Our meta-calibrator is a neural network that takes as input the NeRF images and uncalibrated uncertainty maps and outputs a scene-specific calibration curve that corrects the NeRF's uncalibrated uncertainties. We show that the meta-calibrator can generalize on unseen scenes and achieves well-calibrated and state-of-the-art uncertainty for NeRFs, significantly beating DANE and other approaches. This opens opportunities to improve applications that rely on accurate NeRF uncertainty estimates such as next-best view planning and potentially more trustworthy image reconstruction for medical diagnosis. The code is available at https://niki-amini-naieni.github.io/instantcalibration.github.io/.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 4, 2023 1

Éclair -- Extracting Content and Layout with Integrated Reading Order for Documents

Optical Character Recognition (OCR) technology is widely used to extract text from images of documents, facilitating efficient digitization and data retrieval. However, merely extracting text is insufficient when dealing with complex documents. Fully comprehending such documents requires an understanding of their structure -- including formatting, formulas, tables, and the reading order of multiple blocks and columns across multiple pages -- as well as semantic information for detecting elements like footnotes and image captions. This comprehensive understanding is crucial for downstream tasks such as retrieval, document question answering, and data curation for training Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To address this, we introduce \'Eclair, a general-purpose text-extraction tool specifically designed to process a wide range of document types. Given an image, \'Eclair is able to extract formatted text in reading order, along with bounding boxes and their corresponding semantic classes. To thoroughly evaluate these novel capabilities, we introduce our diverse human-annotated benchmark for document-level OCR and semantic classification. \'Eclair achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on this benchmark, outperforming other methods across key metrics. Additionally, we evaluate \'Eclair on established benchmarks, demonstrating its versatility and strength across several evaluation standards.

  • 11 authors
·
Feb 6, 2025 3

CheXpert: A Large Chest Radiograph Dataset with Uncertainty Labels and Expert Comparison

Large, labeled datasets have driven deep learning methods to achieve expert-level performance on a variety of medical imaging tasks. We present CheXpert, a large dataset that contains 224,316 chest radiographs of 65,240 patients. We design a labeler to automatically detect the presence of 14 observations in radiology reports, capturing uncertainties inherent in radiograph interpretation. We investigate different approaches to using the uncertainty labels for training convolutional neural networks that output the probability of these observations given the available frontal and lateral radiographs. On a validation set of 200 chest radiographic studies which were manually annotated by 3 board-certified radiologists, we find that different uncertainty approaches are useful for different pathologies. We then evaluate our best model on a test set composed of 500 chest radiographic studies annotated by a consensus of 5 board-certified radiologists, and compare the performance of our model to that of 3 additional radiologists in the detection of 5 selected pathologies. On Cardiomegaly, Edema, and Pleural Effusion, the model ROC and PR curves lie above all 3 radiologist operating points. We release the dataset to the public as a standard benchmark to evaluate performance of chest radiograph interpretation models. The dataset is freely available at https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/competitions/chexpert .

  • 20 authors
·
Jan 21, 2019

BayesCap: Bayesian Identity Cap for Calibrated Uncertainty in Frozen Neural Networks

High-quality calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning-based deployed ML systems. While Bayesian deep learning techniques allow uncertainty estimation, training them with large-scale datasets is an expensive process that does not always yield models competitive with non-Bayesian counterparts. Moreover, many of the high-performing deep learning models that are already trained and deployed are non-Bayesian in nature and do not provide uncertainty estimates. To address these issues, we propose BayesCap that learns a Bayesian identity mapping for the frozen model, allowing uncertainty estimation. BayesCap is a memory-efficient method that can be trained on a small fraction of the original dataset, enhancing pretrained non-Bayesian computer vision models by providing calibrated uncertainty estimates for the predictions without (i) hampering the performance of the model and (ii) the need for expensive retraining the model from scratch. The proposed method is agnostic to various architectures and tasks. We show the efficacy of our method on a wide variety of tasks with a diverse set of architectures, including image super-resolution, deblurring, inpainting, and crucial application such as medical image translation. Moreover, we apply the derived uncertainty estimates to detect out-of-distribution samples in critical scenarios like depth estimation in autonomous driving. Code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/BayesCap.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 14, 2022

UNComp: Can Matrix Entropy Uncover Sparsity? -- A Compressor Design from an Uncertainty-Aware Perspective

Deploying large language models (LLMs) for long-context inference remains challenging due to their substantial memory and computational demands. While techniques such as Key-Value (KV) cache compression are designed to reduce memory usage, they often neglect the structured sparsity inherent in the relationship between hidden states and their corresponding KV cache. In this work, we explore the role of uncertainty as a potential indicator of sparsity within LLMs. We propose UNComp, an uncertainty-aware framework that leverages truncated matrix entropy to identify areas of low information content, thereby revealing sparsity patterns that can be used for adaptive compression. Unlike traditional methods that apply uniform compression, UNComp dynamically adjusts its approach to compression, guided by uncertainty measures that reflect the importance of various model components. Our analysis shows that sparsity patterns, when derived from uncertainty estimates, can be exploited to reveal special long-range dependencies, such as retrieval heads and retrieval layers. This perspective not only enhances our understanding of how compression can be optimized but also provides new insights into the inherent sparsity of LLMs during long-context inference. By focusing on uncertainty to analyze the sparsity pattern in detail, UNComp reduces the KV cache size to 4.74% of the original, achieves a 6% prefill speedup, and improves throughput by 6.4x - not only delivering strong lossless compression performance, but also validating the effectiveness of the underlying theoretical tool. We release the code at https://github.com/menik1126/UNComp.

  • 12 authors
·
Oct 3, 2024

Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Uncertainty Estimation of Large Language Models

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in natural language generation and instruction following, a persistent challenge lies in their susceptibility to "hallucinations", which erodes trust in their outputs. Although Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a promising solution, its accurate implementation within the context of LLMs remains a significant hurdle. To address this critical roadblock, our research originates from a fundamental heuristic insight: tokens within auto-regressive LLM-generated text do not equally reflect the underlying meaning. Some tokens carry greater relevance and representativeness than others, owing to the phenomenon of "linguistic redundancy", wherein a select few keywords suffice to convey the essence of lengthy sentences. Regrettably, existing methodologies treat all tokens with equal importance when estimating uncertainty, disregarding these inherent generative inequalities. Our analysis reveals a significant issue with state-of-the-art: numerous tokens (and sentences) of limited semantic significance receive equal or even excessive weighting during uncertainty estimation. To rectify this bias, we propose to jointly Shifting Attention to more Relevant (SAR) components, at both the token- and the sentence-levels for accurate uncertainty estimation. We conduct extensive experiments involving a range of popular "off-the-shelf" LLMs, including instruction-tuned LLMs such as Vicuna, WizardLM, and LLaMA-2-chat, as well as pretrained LLMs like OPT and LLaMA, with model sizes extending up to 33B parameters. We carry out evaluation across various free-form question-answering tasks, encompassing domains such as reading comprehension, science Q&A, and medical Q&A. Our experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of SAR in addressing the challenges of uncertainty estimation within the realm of LLMs.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 3, 2023

AECV-Bench: Benchmarking Multimodal Models on Architectural and Engineering Drawings Understanding

AEC drawings encode geometry and semantics through symbols, layout conventions, and dense annotation, yet it remains unclear whether modern multimodal and vision-language models can reliably interpret this graphical language. We present AECV-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating multimodal and vision-language models on realistic AEC artefacts via two complementary use cases: (i) object counting on 120 high-quality floor plans (doors, windows, bedrooms, toilets), and (ii) drawing-grounded document QA spanning 192 question-answer pairs that test text extraction (OCR), instance counting, spatial reasoning, and comparative reasoning over common drawing regions. Object-counting performance is reported using per-field exact-match accuracy and MAPE results, while document-QA performance is reported using overall accuracy and per-category breakdowns with an LLM-as-a-judge scoring pipeline and targeted human adjudication for edge cases. Evaluating a broad set of state-of-the-art models under a unified protocol, we observe a stable capability gradient; OCR and text-centric document QA are strongest (up to 0.95 accuracy), spatial reasoning is moderate, and symbol-centric drawing understanding - especially reliable counting of doors and windows - remains unsolved (often 0.40-0.55 accuracy) with substantial proportional errors. These results suggest that current systems function well as document assistants but lack robust drawing literacy, motivating domain-specific representations and tool-augmented, human-in-the-loop workflows for an efficient AEC automation.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 8

Evaluating AI systems under uncertain ground truth: a case study in dermatology

For safety, medical AI systems undergo thorough evaluations before deployment, validating their predictions against a ground truth which is assumed to be fixed and certain. However, this ground truth is often curated in the form of differential diagnoses. While a single differential diagnosis reflects the uncertainty in one expert assessment, multiple experts introduce another layer of uncertainty through disagreement. Both forms of uncertainty are ignored in standard evaluation which aggregates these differential diagnoses to a single label. In this paper, we show that ignoring uncertainty leads to overly optimistic estimates of model performance, therefore underestimating risk associated with particular diagnostic decisions. To this end, we propose a statistical aggregation approach, where we infer a distribution on probabilities of underlying medical condition candidates themselves, based on observed annotations. This formulation naturally accounts for the potential disagreements between different experts, as well as uncertainty stemming from individual differential diagnoses, capturing the entire ground truth uncertainty. Our approach boils down to generating multiple samples of medical condition probabilities, then evaluating and averaging performance metrics based on these sampled probabilities. In skin condition classification, we find that a large portion of the dataset exhibits significant ground truth uncertainty and standard evaluation severely over-estimates performance without providing uncertainty estimates. In contrast, our framework provides uncertainty estimates on common metrics of interest such as top-k accuracy and average overlap, showing that performance can change multiple percentage points. We conclude that, while assuming a crisp ground truth can be acceptable for many AI applications, a more nuanced evaluation protocol should be utilized in medical diagnosis.

  • 20 authors
·
Jul 5, 2023

Uncertainty as Feature Gaps: Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of LLMs in Contextual Question-Answering

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) research has primarily focused on closed-book factual question answering (QA), while contextual QA remains unexplored, despite its importance in real-world applications. In this work, we focus on UQ for the contextual QA task and propose a theoretically grounded approach to quantify epistemic uncertainty. We begin by introducing a task-agnostic, token-level uncertainty measure defined as the cross-entropy between the predictive distribution of the given model and the unknown true distribution. By decomposing this measure, we isolate the epistemic component and approximate the true distribution by a perfectly prompted, idealized model. We then derive an upper bound for epistemic uncertainty and show that it can be interpreted as semantic feature gaps in the given model's hidden representations relative to the ideal model. We further apply this generic framework to the contextual QA task and hypothesize that three features approximate this gap: context-reliance (using the provided context rather than parametric knowledge), context comprehension (extracting relevant information from context), and honesty (avoiding intentional lies). Using a top-down interpretability approach, we extract these features by using only a small number of labeled samples and ensemble them to form a robust uncertainty score. Experiments on multiple QA benchmarks in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings show that our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised (sampling-free and sampling-based) and supervised UQ methods, achieving up to a 13-point PRR improvement while incurring a negligible inference overhead.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 2, 2025

LLMs are Bayesian, in Expectation, not in Realization

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 15, 2025